Now that we’ve seen college players in action over the first week of the season, it’s time for our first look at who could be high on MLB draft boards in July.
The buzz on the top of this draft class isn’t great. But this was the case last year at this point and the 2024 draft had at least an average — and maybe even above average — top of the class. That rise was driven mostly due to standout seasons from college players in major conferences, so expect to see some risers from the second and third groupings of this ranking over the next month or two. The talent and development capabilities of college baseball, along with the portal and NIL, help consolidate the best talent to fewer schools, which helps to evaluate the most talented players because they’re more likely to face each other more often.
The depth in all phases of this year’s class is solid. College starting pitching is one of the weaker groups, but there are enough early-season risers that I had to move half a dozen names onto this list who weren’t on it a few weeks ago. That type of quick improvement is why it is too early to write off any part of a draft class.
These players were ranked using the FV (future value) system that I applied for pro prospects. Here are my offseason MLB prospect rankings to see where these players would rank if they turned pro now, though the grades will change (generally improve as we gain more information and certainty) as the spring progresses.
50 FV tier
1. Jace LaViolette (21.6), RF, Texas A&M
2. Jamie Arnold (21.2), LHP, Florida State
The first time I saw Laviolette play for the Aggies, he looked like Lance Berkman: an outfield tweener with a big frame and power swing from the left side (Berkman was a switch-hitter) who is from Texas with similar mannerisms. I wouldn’t expect 55.9 career WAR in the majors from Laviolette — he’s likely a pro corner outfielder and has some bat-to-ball questions — but he’s the best player in the class.
He’s comparable to former college teammate Braden Montgomery, who went to the Boston Red Sox at No. 12 in last year’s draft before he was traded to the Chicago White Sox as part of the Garrett Crochet trade). It’s why this is seen as a down class.
I saw Arnold a good bit in high school when he was mostly pitching in the mid-to-upper-80s at showcases and scraping the low-90s in the spring. He was a late-round sleeper for some teams that thought his velo might spike, but no one met his price so he headed to Florida State — and then his velo spiked quickly in Tallahassee.
He is now a rare pitcher who has a mid-90s heater with a sweeper and newly improved changeup that he delivers from a lower arm slot and very low release height that gives his pitches bat-missing characteristics. Arnold can sometimes have trouble commanding his sweeper especially because it has so much movement and, yes, that’s a good problem to have.
45+ FV tier
3. Tyler Bremner (21.2), RHP, UC Santa Barbara
4. Aiva Arquette (21.7), SS, Oregon State
5. Cam Cannarella (21.8), CF, Clemson
6. Billy Carlson (19.0), SS, Corona HS (CA), Tennessee commit
7. Marek Houston (21.2), SS, Wake Forest
8. Ethan Holliday (18.3), 3B, Stillwater HS (OK), Oklahoma State commit
9. Gavin Fien (18.2), 3B, Great Oak HS (CA), Texas commit
I ran this list by a scout and he agreed that these nine players are breaking away from the group (besides the two players in the tier above).
Bremner versus Arnold was a toss-up as the top pitcher in the class for many scouts entering the spring, but Bremner left his first start early due to soreness that left his coach cautious; we’ll see if he comes back looking the same. Arquette doesn’t have a true plus tool, but he’s an infielder with above-to-plus power and feel to get to it along with roughly average on-base skills. Cannarella is a plus runner and strong defender with plus contact skills, but his chase rate and in-game power lag.
Carlson is old for the high school class but had a strong summer and is above average at nearly everything on the field, including pitching in the mid-90s. He’s a pro shortstop who is hit-over-power at the plate. I had Houston in this tier entering the season because his physicality and swing mechanics had improved so much in the fall that it’s worth projecting that his numbers would improve this spring. The 6-foot-3 shortstop, who is a plus runner and defender, looks to have turned the corner offensively with an OPS over 1.700 and three home runs in his first five games. He might be in the first tier in another month, with one scout comparing him to Dansby Swanson. Fien wasn’t a workout standout in the summer but hit at every event, leading to scouts taking him seriously as a potential first-rounder. His raw power has progressed and he might stick at third base, which has him projected in the top 10 picks.
You might be surprised Holiday isn’t higher on the list, given his easy plus power from the left side and infield fit. He wowed me three years ago as a freshman when I was scouting his brother Jackson, and Ethan has been considered a clear first-rounder since then. His summer numbers haven’t been very good and there wasn’t a reason. I was prepared to move him much lower in this ranking because those events are the best tool to project what he’ll do early in pro ball.
When digging deeper into his summer, I noticed he wasn’t pulling fastballs and a timing issue might be to blame. The combination of his bat being too vertical as it’s about to enter the hitting zone while his elbow is flared out creates a hand load position that seems to cause his problems. He’s often holding in that awkward spot and is too late to get around on good velocity, sometimes bailing toward first base and fighting his hand position.
A few teams also noticed something similar about his timing/trigger being problematic, but they assumed because his dad, former big leaguer Matt Holliday, is such a good swing guy that this would be fixed in the spring. Holliday won’t face a lot of pro-level velocity in the spring, limiting his opportunities to prove that a subtle change can fix this issue. But this typically is not a difficult issue to correct.
45 FV tier
10. Eli Willits (17.6), SS, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK), Oklahoma commit
11. Brendan Summerhill (21.7), CF, Arizona
12. Trent Caraway (21.2), 3B, Oregon State
13. Kayson Cunningham (19.0), SS, Johnson HS (TX), Texas commit
14. Cameron Appenzeller (18.5), LHP, Glenwood HS (IL), Tennessee commit
15. Caden Bodine (21.6), C, Coastal Carolina
16. Xavier Neyens (18.7), 3B, Mount Vernon HS (WA), Oregon State commit
17. Wehiwa Aloy (21.4), SS, Arkansas
18. Dean Curley (21.1), SS, Tennessee
19. Seth Hernandez (19.0), RHP, Corona HS (CA), Vanderbilt commit
20. Slater de Brun (18.1), CF, Summit HS (OR), Vanderbilt commit
21. Tate Southisene (18.8), SS, Basic HS (NV), USC commit
22. Luke Stevenson (21.0), C, North Carolina
23. Ike Irish (21.6), C, Auburn
24. Brock Sell (18.7), CF, Tokay HS (CA), Stanford commit
25. Brady Ebel (17.9), 3B, Corona HS (CA), LSU commit
26. Daniel Pierce (18.9), SS, Mill Creek HS (GA), Georgia commit
27. Kyson Witherspoon (20.9), RHP, Oklahoma
28. Tre Phelps III (21.0), 3B, Georgia
29. Kruz Schoolcraft (18.2), LHP, Sunset HS (OR), Tennessee commit
30. Ethan Conrad (21.0), RF, Wake Forest
31. Kade Anderson (21.0), LHP, LSU
This part of the class is as deep as you’d hope for based on prior drafts, and there’s at least one player of nearly every type in this group. Also, most everyone in this tier will move around over the next few weeks as early-season impressions formulate, so don’t get married to this order.
Willits (son of former big leaguer Reggie) is a 6-1 shortstop with great on-base skills, but limited in-game power. Neyens is a classic power-and-patience lefty with a lot of raw power, but a questionable infielder with bat-to-ball issues in the summer. Cunningham has plus-plus bat control and plus speed, but is old for the class, might play second base and doesn’t have much power projection.
I have Appenzeller as the top prep arm over Hernandez due to projection. Appenzeller is a lanky 6-foot-5 with a lower release and fastball/breaker combo similar to Jamie Arnold’s mix. Hernandez is more reliant on current arm speed, reaching triple digits at times, and mixing in a changeup that plays well off his heater — but his two breaking balls are more fringy to average. Carlson, Hernandez, and Ebel (his father, Dino, is the Dodgers’ third-base coach) all go to the same high school and all three should go in the top 30 picks, which I don’t think has happened.
I’ll likely jumble Bodine, Stevenson and Irish during the spring as they’re the top college catchers in the class. Bodine has standout on-base skills, Stevenson is well-rounded and Irish is more power-forward. Witherspoon is a riser who looked more like a reliever last season and into the summer, but has shown starter ability with some plus qualities early this spring.
The end of the first round is flush with prep position players. De Brun shows shades of Slade Caldwell from last year’s draft (29th overall to Arizona). Some have mentioned Corbin Carroll as a comp, but you have to squint to see that. Southisene’s younger brother Ty got $1 million from the Cubs last year, but Tate should get a multimillion deal due to his power-and-patience skill set packed into a 5-11 frame with some scouts referencing Anthony Volpe. Pierce is moving up in Georgia due to his above-to-plus hit, speed, defense and throwing tools along with standout athletic testing.
40+ FV tier
32. Max Belyeu (21.5), RF, Texas
33. Sean Gamble (18.9), SS, IMG Academy HS (FL), Vanderbilt commit
34. Aaron Watson (18.5), RHP, Trinity Christian HS (FL), Virginia commit
35. Gabe Davis (21.7), RHP, Oklahoma State
36. Steele Hall (17.9), SS, Hewitt-Trussville HS (AL), Tennessee commit
37. R.J. Austin (21.6), CF, Vanderbilt
38. Kane Kepley (21.3), CF, North Carolina
39. Gavin Kilen (21.2), 2B, Tennessee
40. Dax Kilby (18.6), SS, Newnan HS (GA), Clemson commit
41. Henry Godbout (21.7), 2B, Virginia
42. Nick Becker (18.6), SS, Don Bosco HS (NJ), Virginia commit
Gamble is moving up early this spring. Some scouts are comparing his athleticism to an NFL slot receiver, but he probably isn’t a long-term shortstop. Hall is also rising, and scouts are rushing to see him after he reclassified late in the process (so they haven’t seen him as much as his peers) and he is very young for the class (so model-driven teams will be much higher on him). Austin is an early winner in the college season as his raw power is showing up in games. Kilby is another athletic-testing standout who is ascending early in Georgia, and Becker fits that description in the Northeast.
40 FV tier
43. Devin Taylor (21.5), LF, Indiana
44. Nick Dumesnil (21.3), CF, Cal Baptist
45. Henry Ford (21.0), LF, Virginia
46. Dean Moss (19.1), CF, IMG Academy HS (FL), LSU commit
47. Patrick Forbes (20.9), RHP, Louisville
48. Liam Doyle (21.0), LHP, Tennessee
49. J.D. Thompson (21.8), LHP, Vanderbilt
50. Angel Cervantes (17.8), RHP, Warren HS (CA), UCLA commit
51. A.J. Russell (21.0), RHP, Tennessee
52. Robert Xavier Mitchell (19.0), LHP, Prestonwood Christian HS (TX), Texas commit
I stopped at 52 because those are the names I needed to be mentioned here. Forbes had an eye-opening first start that reminded me of Carson Fulmer’s dominant run at Vanderbilt. Doyle, plucked from Ole Miss in the transfer portal, has a plus fastball but needs to show progress with the rest of his repertoire to rise further. Russell is a name to watch closely when he returns from elbow surgery because he has possibly the best college fastball in years due to the combination of his arm slot, extension, movement and velocity.
