Joaquin Phoenix stars as Arthur Fleck in “Joker: Folie a Deux.”
Warner Bros.
Warner Bros. took a big swing with “Joker: Folie a Deux.” It’s turned into a big whiff.
After the billion-dollar success of “Joker” in 2019 on a shoestring budget of just $55 million, the studio greenlit a sequel, offering director Todd Phillips a substantially larger budget of $200 million. As of Wednesday, the film has garnered just $53.8 million domestically, according to Comscore. Its global haul stands at $166 million as of Sunday with updates expected over the weekend.
Panned by critics and audiences, “Joker: Folie a Deux” is not expected to recoup much of its lofty production budget or the additional $100 million in estimated marketing and distribution costs by the end of its theatrical run.
And it’s not the only blockbuster-budgeted film to disappoint at the box office this year.
Other studios, including Warner Bros., Universal, Lionsgate and even Sony, have dropped hundreds of millions of dollars on franchise features and star-studded ensembles — only to see ticket sales sputter.
Of course, it’s not an unusual occurrence in the theatrical industry.
“A combination of hits and flops are a hallmark of every box office year,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. “But, 2024, being subject to a variety of unique challenges to both film production and the release calendar, created an imperfect storm that led to a series of creative misfires and financial failures.”
Additionally, as Hollywood contends with a growing streaming market and a more fickle moviegoing public, these misfires could worry investors.
“Before the rise of streaming, assessing a film’s financial performance was seemingly clearer cut than it has become in recent years,” said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics for Fandango’s movie division.
Because of streaming, Hollywood has shortened the theatrical window, bringing movies to the home market much faster than before. This means that potential moviegoers, who might be on the fence about seeing a movie or seeing it quickly, have a shorter time to wait before they can view it from their couch on a streaming service to which they already subscribe. And if that movie has poor reviews, audiences have even less incentive to go out to cinemas.
“In turn, this shift in dynamics and business models might call into question what kind of box office-to-budget ratio constitutes a loss and what doesn’t,” Robbins noted. “Some numbers are easier to eyeball and identify as a financial misfire without much argument, to be sure. Others may be less obvious to discern in a constantly evolving global marketplace.”
For example, a straight-to-streaming movie with a budget of $200 million could be deemed a success for a studio, if it drums up enough views. Meanwhile, a $200 million film that goes to theaters and underperforms is often considered a failure. That’s especially true when considering studios are also spending on marketing and promotion costs, usually equal to half of the production budget, and sharing ticket proceeds with cinemas.
For companies such as Netflix, Apple or Amazon that have bigger cushions and stakeholders who are traditionally more comfortable with risk, big-budget films going straight to streaming may not faze investors. But for more traditional media companies, that have long traded off their successes at the box office, shareholders still want to see a big theatrical return on investment.
Here’s a look at some of the biggest box-office disappointments so far in 2024, based on production budgets estimated by IMDb and box-office tallies to date from Comscore:
“Joker: Folie a Deux”
- Estimated production budget: $200 million
- Global box office: $166 million
- Release date: Oct. 4, 2024
Warner Bros.’ “Joker: Folie a Deux” fell short of opening weekend expectations earlier this month, securing just $37.6 million domestically after initial box office forecasts called for close to $70 million in its first few days in theaters.
The film picks up after Arthur Fleck’s arrest in “Joker” as he awaits trial at Arkham State Hospital. Audiences failed to connect with the sequel, which featured Lady Gaga, who played a version of Harley Quinn, and her musical talents in a number of scenes.
“Joker: Folie a Deux” suffered the biggest second-week drop of any DC studios film, a whopping 81% fall.
For comparison, its predecessor snapped up $96.2 million during its opening weekend and $248.4 million globally in its first three days.
“Joker: Folie a Deux” failed to lure back its most ardent fans or inspire new moviegoers to flock to cinemas. Critics widely panned the flick, which currently holds a 33% rating on review aggregator Rotten Tomatoes and a rare “D” on CinemaScore.
“Borderlands”
- Estimated production budget: $115 million
- Global box office: $32.9 million
- Release date: Aug. 9, 2024
Trying to capitalize on the popularity of video game-based movies, Lionsgate shelled out $115 million for director Eli Roth’s adaptation of “Borderlands.”
The film touted an all-star cast of Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Jamie Lee Curtis and up-and-comer Ariana Greenblatt, but fell flat with audiences. Blanchett portrayed an infamous bounty hunter who forms an unlikely alliance with a ragtag team of misfits while on a quest to find the missing daughter of the most powerful man in the universe.
“Borderlands” generated a 10% rating on Rotten Tomatoes from 161 reviews and stalled out with just $32.9 million in global ticket sales.
Still from Lionsgate’s “Borderlands.”
Lionsgate
“Argylle”
- Estimated production budget: $200 million
- Global box office: $96.2 million
- Release date: Feb. 2, 2024
Universal’s “Argylle” similarly had a stacked cast — Bryce Dallas Howard, Sam Rockwell, Henry Cavill, John Cena, Dua Lipa and Samuel L. Jackson, among them — but failed to drum up box-office interest.
The film centers on Howard as reclusive author Elly Conway, whose best-selling espionage novels start to mirror the covert actions of a real-life spy organization.
After spending around $200 million on production and an estimated $100 million on marketing efforts, the film generated just $96.2 million worldwide.
Much of the film’s issues stemmed from poor reviews — it garnered a 33% rating on Rotten Tomatoes — for what some called a convoluted yet predictable plot.
“The Fall Guy”
- Estimated production budget: $125 million
- Global box office: $180.9 million
- Release date: May 3, 2024
Universal’s “The Fall Guy” was actually very well-received by critics, earning an 81% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, even the dynamic duo of Ryan Gosling, fresh off “Barbie,” and Emily Blunt, one of the stars of “Oppenheimer,” wasn’t enough to draw audiences out to cinemas.
The film, a love letter to stunt performers based on a television show from the ’80s with the same name, centers on Gosling’s Colt Seavers, a battle-scarred stuntman who is drawn back into the movie industry after the star of a film directed by Seavers’ former love interest Jody Moreno (Blunt) goes missing.
“The Fall Guy” tallied just $180.9 million globally. Its production budget was $125 million, not including marketing and distribution costs. The lack of major franchise attachment and niche storyline appears to have narrowed the audience.
Ryan Gosling stars in Universal’s “The Fall Guy.”
Universal
“Madame Web”
- Estimated production budget: $80 million
- Global box office: $100 million
- Release date: Feb. 14, 2024
Sony’s Spider-Man universe films have been hit-or-miss at the box office for years. For every Venom or Spider-Verse success there’s a “Morbius” or a “Madame Web.”
With an 11% score on Rotten Tomatoes, “Madame Web” sparked the wrong kind of viral attention after its release. Memes flooded social media sites poking fun at the cast’s wooden performances, gaping plot holes and poorly redubbed dialogue.
“Madame Web” follows Cassandra Webb, a New York City paramedic with clairvoyance. Webb’s visions warn her about a threat to three young women, who each will gain spider powers in the future.
The film, which cost around $80 million to produce, managed to scoop up around $100 million in ticket sales globally. However, after marketing costs and splitting receipts with cinemas, the film did not make back its budget.
“Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga”
- Estimated production budget: $168 million
- Global box office: $172.4 million
- Release date: May 24, 2024
Warner Bros.’ “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” was a long-awaited prequel from the mind of George Miller. However, despite solid reviews — a 90% “Fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes — the film failed to explode at the box office.
A prequel to 2015’s “Mad Max: Fury Road,” the film explores Furiosa’s early life after she is kidnapped by a tyrannical warlord and attempts over several years to get back home.
The film’s production did benefit from extensive government subsidies for filming in Australia, which lessened the financial blow, but “Furiosa” generated only $172.4 million during its global run. Its production budget was estimated at around $168 million without marketing expenses.
For comparison, “Mad Max: Fury Road” snared $368 million during its global run in 2015.
Chris Hemsworth stars as the villainous Dementus in Warner Bros.’ “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga.”
Warner Bros. Discovery
“Megalopolis”
- Estimated production budget: $120 million
- Global box office: $9.2 million
- Release date: Sept. 27, 2024
“Megalopolis” was a passion project for writer-director Francis Ford Coppola, who had been stewing over the film’s concept since the late ’70s. He self-financed the film, shelling out $120 million on production.
The film is set in an alternate version of 21st-century New York City called New Rome. It follows an architect named Cesar Catilina (Adam Driver) as he attempts to revitalize the city by building the futuristic utopia called Megalopolis all while facing corrupt leadership bent on shutting down his plans.
The “overstuffed opus,” as Rotten Tomatoes critics called the piece, had a sizeable cast of heavyweights in addition to Driver — Dustin Hoffman, Giancarlo Esposito, Laurence Fishburne and Jon Voight among them — but seemed to draw in only Coppola’s biggest fans. “Megalopolis” tallied just $9.2 million globally.
The film was distributed by Lionsgate. It is unclear if the marketing and distribution costs were split between Coppola and Lionsgate or if the studio took on the financial burden.
“Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1”
- Estimated production budget: $100 million
- Global box office: $38.2 million
- Release date: June 28, 2024
Another passion project, “Horizon: An American Saga — Chapter 1” from Kevin Costner faced difficulties at the box office. The feature collected only $38.2 million at the global box office during its run in theaters. Its poor performance led Costner and Warner Bros. to postpone the release of a planned sequel, “Chapter 2,” which had been set for about six weeks after the first hit theaters.
“Chapter 1” follows several different narratives of people exploring the American West and pioneering new territory, including a gruff cowboy played by Costner, who finds himself on the run with a prostitute and a young boy after killing a fellow gunman.
Costner produced, wrote, directed and starred in both films, spending an estimated $100 million on the two projects. Two more chapters in the saga are still in development with an undisclosed budget.
Western films are a tough sell at modern box offices. The classic genre is beloved by film buffs, but isn’t a huge draw for moviegoers. The highest-grossing Western at the box office is Quentin Tarantino’s 2012 film “Django Unchained,” which generated about $450 million globally, according to Comscore. Costner’s “Dances with Wolves,” from 1990, is the second-highest with $424.2 million in global ticket sales, not adjusted for inflation.
While 2013’s “The Lone Ranger” tallied $260 million worldwide, no other Western film has garnered more than $250 million at the global box office.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC. NBCUniversal owns Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes.
